It only took one week of the second half of the 2025 NFL season for there to be a new favorite to win the NFL MVP.
Second-year quarterback Drake Maye jumped from +425 (which was third after Week 9) to +275 to win the MVP after the New England Patriots upset the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win their seventh game in a row.
New England is now 8-2 and has a stranglehold on the AFC East after the Buffalo Bills and Josh Allen lost to the Miami Dolphins in Week 10. That loss not only impacted the Bills’ division odds, but it shifted Allen from the favorite to win MVP all the way down to in the latest odds.
So, who jumped up?
Matthew Stafford is now second in the odds at +300 after the Los Angeles Rams improved to 7-2 in the 2025 season, and he’s joined by Patrick Mahomes (on the bye in Week 10) and Jonathan Taylor, who ran for 244 yards in three scores in an overtime win for the Indianapolis Colts, who are now 8-2 as well this season.
The MVP race is tight. There are five players at +700 or shorter, and there are a few players outside of that range – Sam Darnold (+1000), Lamar Jackson (+2500), Jalen Hurts (+2200) – that could make some serious cases down the stretch of the regular season.
In fact, Darnold and Stafford have a head-to-head matchup in Week 11 that could end up deciding the NFC West and which one of these players ends up in the top-five in the MVP race.
For now, Maye has the crown as the favorite, but Allen saw that evaporate in one week after he finally took it back from Mahomes.
Here’s a breakdown of the MVP odds and some of the biggest movers after Week 10’s action on Sunday.
Latest NFL MVP Odds for 2025 Season
Drake Maye: +275Matthew Stafford: +300Patrick Mahomes: +500Jonathan Taylor: +650Josh Allen: +700Sam Darnold: +1000Jalen Hurts: +2200Baker Mayfield: +2500Lamar Jackson: +2500Justin Herbert: +2500Jordan Love: +2500Jared Goff: +2800Daniel Jones: +6500Drake Maye Now Favored to Win NFL MVP
Drake Maye didn’t even have that great of a game against Tampa Bay, completing just 51.9 percent of his passes, but he threw for multiple scores for the fifth game in the row.
Maye is up to 19 touchdown passes and just five picks this season while completing an impressive 71.7 percent of his passes. He has New England at 8-2, and it has the easiest remaining schedule in the NFL, as the combined winning percentage of its opponents is a shocking .338.
If the Patriots end up with the No. 1 seed in the AFC, Maye could run away with this award, especially since Allen and Mahomes are facing uphill battles to win their respective divisions.
Matthew Stafford Adds to Massive Passing Stats in Week 10
Stafford is finally getting some respect in the MVP race, moving from +550 to +300 after tossing four more scores in Week 10 to put him at 25 in the 2025 season. He leads the NFL in passing touchdowns, and he added 280 more yards for good measure in a win over San Francisco.
The Rams are 7-2 and atop the NFC West with a chance to make a statement win over the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday in Week 11. If they win that game, Stafford could end up jumping Maye in this market because he has slightly better stats and would have an inside track to the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
Jonathan Taylor Cracks Top-5 in NFL MVP Odds
Can a running back win the MVP?
Jonathan Taylor’s performance before the Indianapolis Colts’ Week 11 bye week was one for the ages. He sprung an 83-yard score in the win and finished with three touchdowns to move his season total to 15 rushing scores and two receiving scores.
He has a real chance to catch LaDainian Tomlinson’s touchdown record, and he’s already up to 1,139 rushing yards, averaging 6.0 yards per carry.
A running back hasn’t won the MVP since Adrian Peterson in 2012, but we’re starting to get into the territory where Taylor has a real case. If the Colts (8-2) win the AFC in the regular season, there’s no doubt that the star back is the driving force behind all of their offensive success.
Josh Allen’s MVP Odds Tank After Loss to Dolphins
The Buffalo Bills scored just 13 points in Week 10 and struggled mightily against the Miami Dolphins, tanking Josh Allen’s MVP case.
Allen went from +180 to +700 to win MVP, as the Bills are facing a serious uphill battle to unseat the Patriots atop the AFC East this season. They’re two games back in the win column and don’t hold the tiebreaker with the lone meeting left between the teams taking place in Massachusetts.
Oddsmakers have given Allen the benefit of the doubt to win MVP again, but hasn’t put up nearly as impressive numbers this season, throwing for 15 scores and five picks in nine games. He threw just six picks all of last season.
Lamar Jackson Could Be Dark Horse MVP Candidate
The Baltimore Ravens have won three games in a row and have a real chance to win the AFC North in the 2025 season.
Could that be enough to win Lamar Jackson the MVP, especially since the Ravens played multiple games without him where they looked completely inept on offense?
It might be, and Jackson has the numbers to back it up, throwing for 15 scores and just one pick in six games while also making a major impact on the ground. Jackson is a long shot since Baltimore likely won’t end up with the No. 1 seed in the AFC, but if the Ravens win out, he at least would deserve some consideration.
