The Chiefs are one of the hottest teams in the NFL on a six-game winning streak. While most fantasy football fans are enamored with the high powered Kansas City offensive trio of Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, it is actually the Chiefs defense that has anchored the club’s winning streak. Over the last six games, Kansas City has only surrendered a paltry 10.8 points per game to its opponents.
Week 15 of the 2021 NFL season kicks off Thursday Night when Justin Herbert and the Chargers play host to Mahomes and the Chiefs in an AFC West showdown with playoff implications.
The Chargers, who have won three of their last four games, will look to continue their playoff push as well as their quest for the 2021 AFC West title. Los Angeles (8-5), one game behind the Chiefs (9-4) in the standings, will look to defeat their division rival for the second time this season. Back in Week 3, the Chargers went into Arrowhead and beat the Chiefs, 30-24, as 6.5-point road underdogs.
Los Angeles, despite winning the last two matchups, has lost seven of the last 10 meetings with Kansas City overall. The Chargers, who are 4-3 straight up (SU), are a disappointing 3-4 against the spread (ATS) at SoFi Stadium this season.
Mahomes has shined under the bright lights of – completing 75.3% of his passes, which has resulted in six touchdown passes and a 2-1 mark in his young career. A deeper dive also reveals that arguably the best quarterback in the NFL today also owns a 4-2 record in six career meetings with the Chargers.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers Betting Trends and InfoSpread: Kansas City Chiefs -3 (-110) | Los Angeles Chargers +3 (-110)Moneyline: Kansas City (-165) | Los Angeles (+140)Total: 51.5– Over (-110) | Under 51.5 (-110)Public (Spread) Betting Percentages: KC 61% | LAC 39%Game Info: Thursday, Dec. 16, 2021 | 8:20 p.m. ET | NFL Network
The line has bounced around since its opening in favor of Kansas City (9-4 SU; 6-7 ATS) as 3.5-point road favorites at SI Sportsbook – peaking at a 4-point spread – before settling back down at a field goal demand. The total, which opened at 50.5, has risen to 51.5. The Chargers (8-5 SU; 7-6 ATS), who have scored 37-plus points in three of their last four games, will welcome back star wideout Keenan Allen after he was forced to sit last week against the Giants due to COVID-19.
In Week 15, fantasy managers are hoping for big production from Kansas City’s high powered offense in the first week of the fantasy playoffs. Star wideout Tyreek Hill has struggled of late, posting four or fewer receptions in three of his last five games. The dynamic Hill, who has not scored in three straight games, has only topped 90 yards receiving once since Week 5. Against a Los Angeles defense that is surrendering the fourth-fewest passing yards per game (207.3), Hill was held to a stat line of 5/56/0. In 10 career games against the Chargers, despite hauling in six touchdowns, the speedy wideout has only averaged 65.1 receiving yards per contest.
Instead, respected money in Vegas has targeted his teammate Travis Kelce. The star tight end, who has posted back-to-back disappointing efforts of 3/27/0, enjoyed one of his best games of the season in the first matchup with Los Angeles, hauling in seven receptions for 104 yards. Respected money is backing a return to superb production, betting over his receiving yardage projection of 64.5, which he has surpassed eight of 12 games this season.
On the ground, it has been made abundantly clear that the Chiefs offense operates at its highest level when Darrel Williams is in the backfield. However, the Kansas City coaching staff continues to employ Clyde Edwards-Helaire as the primary back when the two running backs are healthy. One of his two 100-plus yard rushing efforts this season came against the Chargers in Week 4. However, despite scoring three rushing touchdowns in his last three games since returning from injury, the former LSU star has produced only 51.3 rushing yards per game despite being awarded double-digit rushing attempts in each game.
On the other hand, Williams has posted double-digit PPR fantasy points in five of the last six thanks to his strong prowess in the passing game. The fourth-year back, a mismatch for linebackers or safeties, is easily the best weapon on the Kansas City roster working out of the backfield. Investing in Williams surpassing his receiving yard market of 17.5 is a solid wager in this matchup. The versatile back has exceeded this receiving total in three of the last four, seven of 13 overall.
On the other side of the ball, the Chargers are hoping that Austin Ekeler will be able to suit up on the short week despite dealing with an ankle injury. Any wager involving Ekeler, who likely should receive the bulk of the volume, is a dangerous investment due to this lingering injury on a short week.
The biggest change from last week for Los Angeles’ offense is that quarterback Justin Herbert will welcome back star wide receiver Keenan Allen. In the first matchup, the veteran turned 12 targets into eight receptions for 50 yards and a touchdown. In 12 career games against Kansas City, Allen is averaging 6.3 receptions and 71.3 receiving yards.
Herbert, who has been sensational with four 300-plus yard passing efforts in his last six games, has thrown for 14 touchdowns over that span. In the first matchup, the second-year stud torched the Kansas City defense for a season-high four touchdowns.
Frankie's Thursday Night Football Play
As we continue to stress, if you are under the assumption that backing home teams in the NFL is a blind profitable endeavor this season, then you need to pay closer attention. Home teams are just 91-116-1 (44.0%) ATS, while more specifically home underdogs are a disappointing 39-44 (47.0%) ATS thus far in 2021.
After going 3-0 on NFL props on Monday night, we will look to keep that string perfect in a game many fantasy owners will be invested heavily in. In this contest, we will look to back the team that will have the best player on the field as well as the best defensive unit over the last six weeks. On Thursday night that involves backing Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs defense.
BET: Kansas City -3 (-110)
PROP BETS:
Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs: Over 64.5 Receiving Yards
Darrel Williams, RB, Chiefs: Over 17.5 Receiving Yards
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SI BET REVIEW
2021 SI Betting Monday Night Football: 7-7 ATS / Props 14-11 +5.15 units
2021 SI Betting NFL Football Overall YTD: 39-33 ATS & Props +9.02 Units
2020 SI Betting NFL Football: 72-58-1 ATS (55%)
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