Fabs Top 10 quarterbacks
1. Josh Allen at Bears
2. Patrick Mahomes vs. Seahawks
3. Joe Burrow at Patriots
4. Justin Fields vs. Bills
5. Justin Herbert at Colts (MNF)
6. Tua Tagovailoa vs. Packers (Sun.)
7. Kirk Cousins vs. Giants
8. Tom Brady at Cardinals (Sun.)
9. Geno Smith at Chiefs
10. Dak Prescott vs. Eagles
Week 16 Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em: QUARTERBACKS | RUNNING BACKS | WIDE RECEIVERS | TIGHT ENDS | KICKERS & TEAM DEFENSES
Week 16 Start ‘Em: Quarterbacks
Start of the Week
Justin Herbert at Colts (Mon. 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN): Herbert was my start of the week against the Titans, and he put up an awful 8.7 fantasy points. Win some, lose some. But for those who still advanced, I’d keep the faith and start Herbert again in a plus matchup in Indianapolis. The Colts have allowed 17-plus points to quarterbacks seven times in 2022, including four who have posted over 20 points.
Start ‘Em
Geno Smith at Chiefs (1 p.m. ET, Fox): Smith is coming off a modest stat line, as he scored 15.3 fantasy points in a loss to the 49ers. That was his worst total since Week 7. Still, I’m starting him in what is a plus matchup against the Chiefs. Their defense has been bad against quarterbacks, allowing the fourth-most points. It’s surrendered 17.9 or more points 10 times and 20-plus points seven times in 2022.
SI Sportsbook Player Prop: Smith over 1.5 touchdown passes (+105)
Tom Brady at Cardinals (Sun. 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC): Brady has been tough to trust in the stat sheets, but this week’s matchup against the Cardinals makes him a top-10 option. Their defense has been awful against signal-callers, allowing the eighth most points. In fact, eight quarterbacks have scored at least 18.9 points including five who have posted 25-plus points. This is an absolute fantasy smash spot.
SI Sportsbook Player Prop: Brady over 257.5 passing yards (-120)
Kirk Cousins vs. Giants (1 p.m. ET, Fox): Cousins is coming off a massive stat line, scoring a season-high 32.4 fantasy points in an historic come-from-behind win over the Colts. He’s now scored 18-plus points in all but two of his eight home games, including four games with more than 21 points. The Giants have given up 19 points per game to quarterbacks since Week 12, so Cousins should produce.
Aaron Rodgers at Dolphins (Sun. 1 p.m. ET, Fox): Rodgers has failed to score more than 16.9 points in all but two games, but he’s still worth a look when the Packers face Miami. The Dolphins defense has allowed 24 touchdown passes and the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season. What’s more, the position has scored 18-plus points seven times including two with more than 40.
More Starts
• Tua Tagovailoa vs. Packers (Sun. 1 p.m. ET, Fox)
• Daniel Jones at Vikings (1 p.m. ET, Fox)
DFS Bargains
• Kirk Cousins vs. Giants ($6,300)
• Geno Smith at Chiefs ($5,800)
• Daniel Jones at Vikings ($5,600)
Sit of the Week
Dak Prescott vs. Eagles (4:25 p.m. ET, Fox): Prescott has been uneven in the stat sheets, scoring 16.8 or fewer points in three of his last four games. I’d be wary of this week’s matchup against the Eagles, too. Their defense has surrendered the second-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks, and just two players at the position have scored more than 16.2 points. If you start Prescott, temper your expectations.
SI Sportsbook Player Prop: Prescott under 240.5 passing yards (-120)
Sit ‘Em
Jared Goff at Panthers (1 p.m. ET, Fox): Goff’s trend of posting mediocre totals on the road continued last week, as he had just one touchdown and scored 14.1 points in a win over the Jets. Next up is another roadie, this time against Carolina. Their defense has been tough on quarterbacks, allowing an average of fewer than 16 fantasy points per game to the position. I’d keep Goff on the fantasy sidelines.
SI Sportsbook Player Prop: Goff under 1.5 touchdown passes (-141)
Deshaun Watson vs. Saints (1 p.m. ET, CBS): Watson has not posted attractive fantasy totals since his return to action, scoring a combined 34.3 points in three games. He’s looking more like a game manager than a playmaker, and I’d keep him on the bench when the Browns face New Orleans. The Saints’ defense has allowed just four quarterbacks to score more than 17.5 points against them in 2022.
Derek Carr at Steelers (8:15 p.m. ET, NFL Network): Carr has scored 19-plus points in three of his last five games, but I’d have a tough time starting him in the second week of the fantasy postseason against the Steelers. While their defense has given up some big games to quarterbacks, those have been to Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts and Joe Burrow. I don’t love Carr’s ceiling in this matchup, either.
Mac Jones vs. Bengals (1 p.m. ET, CBS): Jones isn't a viable starter in traditional fantasy leagues, but he's even a risk in multi-quarterback and super flex formats against the Bengals. The weather is going to be very cold in Foxboro, and Cincinnati's defense is stingy against opposing signal-callers. In fact, the position is averaging fewer than 14 fantasy points per game against them in 2022.
More Sits
• Taylor Heinicke at 49ers (4:05 p.m. ET, CBS)
• Tyler Huntley vs. Falcons (1 p.m. ET, Fox)
DFS Fades
• Dak Prescott vs. Eagles ($6,100)
• Deshaun Watson vs. Saints ($6,000)
• Jared Goff at Panthers ($5,400)
